The second half of the month has seen a positive shift in gear on GBP NZD rates with a move of over 3.5% since the 15th of January, showing a considerable shift in sentiment in sterling exchange rates over its commodity based counterparts and reflecting an increased appetite for risk, as the prospect of a Brexit no deal continues to fade.
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The start of this week could prove pivotal however with the pound edging closer to the key 1.95 mark; a fresh hold sterling has failed miserably to breach and sustain multiple times since the referendum vote.
If you are looking to buy Kiwi dollars with pounds I feel it is worth trying to weigh up how much further you think the markets will continue to back sterling, particularly with a strong set of international trade data for New Zealand likely to provide even more support to the Kiwi in the early stages of this week.
Back at the start of the year, global dairy prices (New Zealand’s biggest export) surprised the markets with a jump of 2.8% and gave investors plenty of reason to back the Kiwi. There is a chance this could filter through into this evening’s key Import/Export releases which might bolster the New Zealand dollar even more, making it more expensive to buy. To add to this, Jean Claude Juncker, president of the European commission, was full of praise after his meeting with the NZ PM Jacinda Ardern, with both insisting they will be doing everything in their power to implement the ambitious task of creating a free trade agreement between the European block and New Zealand before the end of the year.
Stronger access to Europe’s mammoth agricultural markets will in theory allow New Zealand’s exports to jump onto new levels, so I personally expect this to fend off any real drive from sterling in the short term.
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