The Canadian Dollar has been performing well of late following renewed hopes that the North American Free Trade Agreement could be saved. More on the latest in the negotiations between Trump, Mexico and Canada in the market report below with the table showing the range of exchange rates for GBPCAD during the past week.
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
An announcement on the deal is expected before the month is out according to US and Canadian officials. The reason that this is widely expected is that according to legislation, if the agreement is made before the end of September. After this point, US legislators will not have the 60 days by law to scrutinize and make amendments to the deal before the New Mexican President, Abdres Manuel Obrador Lopez, takes office in December. According to reports, the US and White House officials want a deal to be concluded so that trilateral trade discussions cannot be re-opened. These rumours have largely been behind the recent Canadian Dollar strength of late. If a trade deal is concluded before the end of September, then many analysts are largely expecting the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates in October by 25bp. Whilst the Loonie has further scope to continue to gain, if President Donald Trump terminates the NAFTA agreement then the Loonie could fall by nearly 20% in minutes according to analysts.
Later today sees the release of two major economic data releases that could influence the Canadian Dollar – Retail Sales and Bank of Canada inflation figures. Retail Sales are expected to jump up to 0.4% from last month’s contraction of -0.2%. I would expect any deviation on this figure to cause volatility on CAD exchange rates. Due to be released at the same is the yearly inflation report which is expected to fall by 0.2%. Any further drop off in this figure and the likelihood of future interest rate hikes could diminish, resulting in Canadian Dollar weakness. If you do have a CAD requirement, it may be worth speaking to FCD ahead of these volatile data releases.
For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.
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