Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell has called a halt to raising interest rates, however some believe that this could be an indication that a small cut is coming. US economic data has somewhat cooled off in the last few months with some of the more expansive data earlier this year moving into normal levels.

Currency Pair% Change (Month)Difference on £200,000

Whilst no one is expecting that there would be non-stop continual improvement, the speed of the slowdown appears to be placed at the foot of the Federal Reserve for raising rates so many times over the past 18 months.

President Donald Trump who unlike previous leaders has chosen to be very vocal against the independent central bank, has led the charge against Powell last week even having to deny he threatened to demote him.

There is thought to be a 72% chance of a rate cut being priced in when the Federal Open Market Committee meet on the 30th-31st July. The US dollar appears to have increased in strength since the weekend, however this could be partly down to the success with North Korea and the trade truce with China.

Wells Fargo Releases Upgraded US Dollar Forecast

Busy week of US Data

The next few days bring a flurry of data for the US with Trade Balance data for the month of May expected on Wednesday along with the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Secondly on Friday the Non-Farm Payrolls for June will be released with the Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment rate for June. These three releases on Friday always have the potential to move the markets and with US data not quite where it used to be a surprise is always possible.

If you do have an upcoming currency transfer, you may wish to keep in touch with your broker. With the prospect of changes in interest rates and a potential softening of US tensions with foreign nations there could potentially be market movement on the way.

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