The US dollar continued to strengthen yesterday afternoon against the pound, after New UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson continued with his hard Brexit stance, standing by his promise that the UK will leave the EU on 31st October, combined with a mixed set of US economic data released yesterday.
|Currency Pair||% Change (Month)||Difference on £200,000|
Durable Goods orders, which provides an overview of the number of sales for items designed to last longer than 3 years, showed a large increase in June, although it is unlikely that this will change expectations that business investment showed a contraction in the second quarter. Trade Balance figures were also released yesterday and showed a narrowing trade deficit last month, as both imports and exports both fell, highlighting the impact the trade war between the US and China is already having on US trade. The Federal Reserve have highlighted housing and business investment as two areas of focus, as both are weighing down on the US economy at present. However, the labour market continues to prop up the economy, after initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 last week to 206,000, the lowest level seen since April.
Gross Domestic Product will be released at 1.30pm this afternoon for the second quarter of this year, and it is expected to show a sharp fall to 1.8% from 3.1% in the previous quarter. It is worth noting that J.P. Morgan have cut back its previous GDP estimate, to 1%. This will be followed by Core Personal Consumption Expenditures for quarter 2, capturing consumer spending volumes. These figures are expected to rise from 1.2% to 2%, therefore this afternoon there could be some volatility for US dollar exchange rates.
Looking at the week ahead, the next round of trade talks between the US and China are set to resume on Tuesday in Shanghai. This will be the first meeting between the US and Chinese trade teams since the two presidents Trump and Jinping met at the G20 Summit in Japan, where it was agreed that discussions would be revived in order for the two nations to come to an agreement, ending the year-long trade war. Commentary from this meeting has the potential to impact US dollar exchange rates. The Federal Reserve will then meet on Wednesday to announce its latest Interest Rate decision, where it is widely expected that Interest Rates will be cut from 2.5% to 2.25%.
Please feel free to contact us ahead of these key events if you would like to be kept informed of developments.
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