The Italian economy is set to smash the European Union fiscal rules as the deficit is forecast to be 3.5% of Gross Domestic Product in 2020 above the 3.0% maximum. Last year the Italian Government and the EU came to a budget agreement after months of negotiations promising that this year the deficit would be 2.5% with next year being 2.1%. However, 6 months after the deal was agreed the same problems remain with the Italian debt levels set to rise once more.

Currency Pair% Change (Month)Difference on £200,000
GBPEUR1.53%€3,558

The Commission are unlikely to impose any penalties on Italy until after the European elections as new Members of European Parliament (MEPs) will be coming in with different plans. The EU has been incredibly tolerant with Italy over the last few years and with an expected rise of the right in May’s elections, there may be a firmer stance when Italy break the rules. Anyone who follows European politics will be very familiar with the Italian situation and it looks, probably to no one’s real surprise like it is a long way from a resolution. 

EU Voting Day 2019

Mario Draghi to speak this afternoon

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi will speak just after lunchtime and there is always the potential for volatility when he speaks. Draghi is likely to discuss the current challenges facing the Eurozone and how he see’s the economy getting back on track following a difficult period. Draghi is leaving within six months as the ECB President with several candidates from across the EU positioning for the top spot. The markets may start to take note of the incoming President and what their strategy may be for the economy. Draghi has been at the helm since November 2011 and has adopted a low interest policy coupled with relentless Quantitative Easing. This has worked to an extent however a new President may bring changes and that creates uncertainty.

From a data perspective there is not expected to be any releases between now and the end of the week, but if you do have a transfer soon make sure you’re in contact with your broker.

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