The main driver of the euro in the week ahead will probably be the escalating trade war between the US and China. The single currency is displaying some resilience against the continuing problems surrounding them but some see the euro as 'safe haven' asset qualities of late, tending to gain when the trade war issue flares up. This has been the case since the US shattered the calm by announcing it would proceed with enacting the latest tranche of tariffs on Chinese imports as trade negotiations between the two sides had failed to make material progress. EUR/USD rates will be a key indictor for the rest of the global economies to watch.
| Currency Pair | % Change (Month) | Difference on £200,000 | |
|---|---|---|---|
 GBP |  EUR | 3.1% | €6,200 |
Concerning the exchange rate's outlook for the coming week, the return back beneath the 1.16 level means the outlook for the GBP/EUR rates are still the pair that is continuous trying to break resistance in their own markets. From the continued Brexit news to the European countries still struggling to survive on ending austerity. Such as the Italians, their budget and growing GDP debt ratio the EU are trying to compromise with the country’s own political stance.
German data expected to show improvement in economy
German economic Sentiment survey is out this morning at 10am which could be a potential to be a market mover on the basis that the optimism is expected to grow from 5.0 from 3.1. Part of the strength in the value of EUR/GBP value this morning could be factored in to this release. The Eurozone has been showing possible signs of a gradual recovery recently and a strong ZEW would back this up.
The second estimate of Q1 GDP is expected to show no change from the 0.4% gain recorded by the preliminary estimate, when it is released at 10.00 on Wednesday. Likewise, the second estimate for inflation data in April is forecast to show little change from the initial stronger than expected estimate.
The constant back and forth with the positive and negative news coming out of the Eurozone, it is difficult to digest the data alone. I would recommend getting in touch with your account manager to discuss how best to plan to buy or sell euros.
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