With European elections just around the corner, euro holders will be holding out for a consistent stream of positive data from the bloc’s major players in the hope that a settled economic landscape at least might counter balance any political turbulence the zone looks set to go through towards the end of the month.

Currency Pair% Change (Month)Difference on £200,000

To this tune, Germany’s economy seemed to have turned a corner just at the right time with Gross domestic product (GDP) rising by 0.4% for the quarter and 0.7% growth for the year. According to the Feral Statistics Office, consumer spending has picked up considerably and optimism in the construction sector has also improved.

It will be interesting to see if this positivity is reflected across the bloc’s other major players, with key inflation data for the eurozone due out tomorrow morning.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will have certainly welcomed yesterday’s release as they have been put under growing pressure to consider re-aligning its monetary policy stance to help rekindle growth within the bloc.

Should we see a pick-up in inflation, the ECB will be encouraged to maintain its course on longer term interest rate hikes rather than reverting to stimulus tactics, potentially helping the euro fall back in favour of the market, making it more expensive to buy.

Global tensions handicapping euro prospects

Global tensions handicapping euro prospects

A major flaw in any real path to sustainable growth from the euro remains in the geopolitical battles the bloc is currently confronted with. The trade face off between the US and China, two major trading partners with Europe, and indeed the ongoing Brexit saga has left growth prospects and indeed business sentiment limited.

These concerns were largely at the centre of president of the ECB’s April policy speech and were again repeated yesterday in board member Benoit Coeure’s speech in Paris. He hinted the ECB remain ready to use the tools it has to provide a kick towards it’s inflation target, the echoes of which might hinder the euro’s chance of short term gains in the weeks ahead.


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