We have seen a reasonably quiet start to the trading week so far, with very little for the market to feed off of and no major political storms so far this week, for the U.K at least anyway! The table here shows the movement for a number of GBP exchange rates in the last week:
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
To kick off the day today we have U.K industrial and manufacturing figures along with Trade balance, all due to be released at 09:30am. This data will show how these areas performed in February, so will not be liable to the poor weather conditions that the U.K had in March that has dampened some of our economic data recently. In a week where data is hard to come by this may have more of an impact than usual, in quieter trading weeks investors and speculators will concentrate on releases such as these with a little more focus.
So far in 2018 manufacturing figures have been reasonably sluggish, so a positive figure would be welcomed by the markets and could move Sterling forward once again, Trade balance is expected to remain fairly stable so unless there are any surprises I think industrial and manufacturing data will be key for today.
Today Industrial and Manufacturing data covers February, so will not be affected by the poor UK weather conditions in March that dampened recent economic data.
Later on this afternoon we have the NIESR (National Institute of Social and Economic Research) growth estimates for how the U.K economy performed in March.
This prediction is rarely too wide from the official release so is taken fairly seriously by the markets, so this certainly is something to watch out for. The concern is that poor weather conditions in March may have dampened economic growth, and although this can be seen as a blip rather than a long term problem a lower growth estimate for U.K economic growth could be the release that slows up this current bout of Sterling strength.
We are witnessing a quiet period for Brexit news at present and by the look of it the market is seeing no news as good news.
With so much at stake, even the slightest piece of bad news surrounding Brexit has the potential to knock Sterling off of the current multi month highs against most major currencies, and that is something that anyone holding the Pound does need to be wary of as this could happen at any time. As an example, Sterling is currently sat at its highest point against the Euro since June 2017 and current prices compared to the lowest point back in August would achieve you almost €14,000 more for a £200,000 purchase.
With this in mind it is well worth getting in touch with your account manager here at FCD to discuss the options available. If you have a larger transaction to make then it may be prudent to consider booking at least some of it out whilst rates are so favourable, as Sterling over the past year has struggled to sustain a period of strength as you can see in the chart above.
If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months and you would like to speak to a member of our experienced dealing team then feel free to contact our trading floor on 01494 725353 and we will be more than happy to help you. Alternatively you can set up a rate alert or check live foreign exchange rates here.
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