The probability of an interest rate hike jumped to 65% overnight on Wednesday after a hawkish news conference from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz. The Canadian Dollar report below will look at the way an interest rate hike - or the potential for one - can impact a currency. The table below shows the range of exchange rates during the high and low points of the past month, and the potential returns, depending on when you carried out your transfer.

Currency Pair% ChangeDifference on £200,000
GBP/CAD-5.07%CAD$17,595.18

Canadian Dollar exchange rates have since improved and I think that today’s data releases could influence whether or not there is a hike next month on the 11th of July. Later today there will be a Bank of Canada Outlook Survey and also Gross Domestic Product data for the month of April. Some positive readings are likely to result in a stronger Loonie, especially the GDP data so keep an eye on markets around 1.30am UK time when the figures will be released.

Markets are expecting to see 0 growth through April so if the figure shows an improvement we could see the Loonie gain as expectations of the rate hike improve.

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Economic Updates to lookout for in the short-term future

Both Monday and Tuesday could be quiet in North America owing to public holidays in both Canada and US, so our readers have plenty of time to plan around transfers next week; do feel free to make us aware if you’re planning on making a transfer involving CAD.

Next Friday could be busy for CAD exchange rates when the Unemployment Rate, Purchasing Managers Index figures, and Imports/Exports will be released. This data comes out at the same time as US Unemployment and Non-Farm Payroll data so I expect lunchtime of next week to be a volatile time for the currency markets.

Aside from these matters I expect the ongoing, and slow moving saga of the North American Free Trade Agreement to continue to influence CAD exchange rates as we’ve seen through 2018. Canada runs at a trade deficit so any slowdown in the global/North American economy is likely to impact CAD value quite substantially.

For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.

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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.