Hilary Clinton is currently clear favourite in the election race. Trump and Clinton need two-hundred and seventy Electoral College votes to win the presidency. There is now less than two weeks until Election Day and despite Clinton being in front in the polls at two-hundred and sixty-two and Trump flagging at one hundred and twenty-six, the race could be a lot closer than many predict. There could be big swings in voting if the usual antics take place as Election Day draws nearer.
Trump will no doubt have a trick up his sleeve that will be used to damage Hilary’s reputation. Both candidates will be trying to win toss-up states North Carolina, Ohio and Arizona so expect increased volatility on GBP/USD.
Clinton is seen as the better bet for the US economy in terms of who gains Presidency. Trump’s outlandish stance on limiting trade between China would be catastrophic for both nations and there is the possibility trillions could be taken off both countries’ GDP.
Federal Reserve Chair Lady, Janet Yellen indicated at the end of last year there could be as many as four interest rate hikes in 2016 and we have yet to see one materialise. Although the FED is meant to act as a separate entity to the government, I cannot help but think the election influenced interest rate decisions. If Clinton gains power, I would expect a rate hike in December which would be a catalyst to GBP/USD falling below 1.20.
Keep track of GBP/USD exchange rates here.
Durable goods measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, goods planned to last in excess of three years. Durable products often involve large investments that can be sensitive to the US economy. Any big movements against the grain can cause volatility. I would expect a small gain and a slight improvement for the green back.
For more information on how this years US election could impact your currency needs, speak to our team of brokers today on 01494 725 353.
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