With much of the attention focused on Sterling in recent weeks, a number of concerning factors in the Eurozone have come to light.
Sterling has been through a torrid time of late due to Brexit. December’s GBP/EUR levels of 1.40 + are now a distant memory and now even 1.30 seems difficult to achieve for the foreseeable future.
Current levels however are due to economic and political uncertainty and I feel the Pound will gradually recover once trade negations begin to take shape. With Theresa May at the helm, who is renowned for getting the job done rather than just talking about it, it may not be quite as bad as some economists predicted.
With regards to the Eurozone I think the economy is in bad position. Greece have recently indicated they will be unable to make their next debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Italy’s economy is currently in tatters. The IMF have announced yesterday growth forecasts are expected to be poor for some time to come for Italy. There is also the possibility of further EU members holding a referendum, which would cause havoc for the Euro.
Mario Draghi, the Head of the European Central Bank (ECB) has played down concerns over the Eurozone, but the actions the ECB have taken in monetary policy paints a different picture. There has been rate cuts and the increase to €80bn a month in quantitative easing does not seem to be having the desired effect.
If you are selling Euros you are currently in one of the best positions to sell in the last three years. There is the possibility of a UK interest rate cut which could move GBP/EUR further in your favour, but I feel this will be for small gains. I would try not to procrastinate too long considering the gains made since Brexit.
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