With the October summit fast approaching, the Head of the European Commission Jean Claude Juncker confirmed at the end of last week that the chances of a Brexit deal had increased. President of the European Council Donald Tusk went one step further and announced a Brexit deal in 2018 is likely. Off the back of the news, GBPEUR exchange rates increased to a 3-month high. To put this into monetary terms, £200,000 traded today compared to the lows we have seen over the last 3 months generates clients an additional €7,800.

Currency Pair% Change in 1 monthDifference on £200,000

At present the UK and EU cannot come to an agreement on a few issues, including the Irish Border. However reports last week suggest that UK Prime Minister Theresa May plans to change the ‘back stop’ agreement, which will give the UK and EU more time to negotiate the Irish Border. The PM now plans to keep the whole of the UK in a temporary customs agreement, which will keep the Irish border open and therefore allow goods and services along with thousands of people to pass through the border on a daily basis without restriction.  

euro continues ECB President Christine Lagarde Upcoming Speech to Impact Euro Ratesbattle coronavirus on home turf

European Economic events to look out for

There are a few Eurozone data releases to look for this week in the form of Investor Confidence this morning, German Trade numbers tomorrow morning and the ECB monetary policy accounts on Thursday. However I expect Brexit updates this week will be the key driver for GBPEUR exchange rates. Any developments before the October summit next week could be key. If it’s the case we continue to receive positive news from both parties, I expect that GBPEUR could finish the week in the higher 1.14s. However, for clients buying euros with pounds, we've been in this position before and one press conference or statement can send the pound crashing against the euro. With so much yet to be decided, clients buying euros should seriously consider taking advantage of the spike we have seen. 

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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.