GBPEUR rates have climbed significantly recently as a result of potential progress on Brexit. Saying that however concerns are also mounting in Europe…
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One of the main topics driving the euro's value has been the developments on Italian debt management and budget. Italy is the third largest economy in the Eurozone making up 15% of the Eurozone’s GDP. Yet it has debts of 2.26 trillion euros or the equivalent of 132% of their GDP. The only other member with a larger amount of debt is Greece.
The European Commission rejected Italy’s recent budget plans last month, claiming it violated a commitment to lower the country’s deficit and gave them until this week to submit a reversal. According to reports they are planning to submit a very similar budget this week, which could spark an unprecedented crisis in the EU.
This is a story which I expect to see through the remainder of the year until the QE program, which has been supporting the Italian debt cycle ends, and a solution is found. It is certainly something which could continue to weigh on the value of the euro.
Later today we have one of the largest releases from the European Central Bank (ECB), in the latest update on GDP forecasts. This is released at 10:00am and is expected to show an expansion of 0.2% for the third quarter of the year. However, many expect this to not be the case with problems in Italy resulting in a lower number being potentially announced.
The market has factored in this expectation, meaning that if the expected increase is confirmed the euro could well strengthen. If however the figure comes in lower than expected the euro could well weaken further.
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