Is a Brexit vote looking less likely?

Sterling soared to a fresh 4-month high against the Euro during yesterday’s trading following a newly released survey on Britain’s EU referendum - offering a fantastic spike for any clients looking to purchase Euros.

The poll, released yesterday by ORB International for the Daily Telegraph, suggests that the ‘remain’ camp now has a 13-point lead over the ‘leave’ campaign, with 55% of the votes. Perhaps most significantly, the poll highlighted that the remain’ camp had support from a majority of those over the age of 65. The findings from their survey also revealed that those in the ‘undecided’ camp were twice as likely to vote to remain rather than for a Brexit.

The market has been shifting substantially in recent weeks in response to the most recent news surrounding the EU referendum, and judging by yesterday’s market movement, it would suggest that investor confidence, and therefore the Pound, should be boosted if Britain votes to remain in the EU. In my opinion, anyone who needs to buy Euros before the referendum on the 23rd June may be wise to move on this spike in their favour. I believe that, similarly to the Scottish referendum a few years back, we may see the Pound weaken sharply in the weeks running up to the referendum on the back on media focus and any hints that a Brexit vote could be on the cards.

To learn more about how the EU Referendum is affect exchange rates and how a potential Brexit could impact British expats, click here.

Mark Carney Backs Remain Camp in EU Referendum

Mark Carney also added fuel to the fire yesterday morning during the Bank of England’s inflation report, where he backed up his previous comments that he feels the UK would be better off in the EU. When asked by a leave campaigner why he had got involved in the debate, Carney answered, "We have a responsibility to discharge our remit and we have a wider responsibility to the British people, who don't want risks kept from them."

I believe that these comments may have helped the Pound strengthen further as, being fairly impartial; the public may trust Carney’s views and opinions.

Later this week on Thursday we have GDP figures released for Q1 of this year and I feel that these may pose a risk to the Pound’s recent run of strength. GDP figures are usually scrutinised closely by investors and can therefore create volatility swings in the currency market. If the figures come out worse than expected then we could see the Pound’s gains from yesterday quickly reversed. With this in mind, if you have Euros to buy it may be sensible to move sooner rather than later to protect yourself from any adverse market movement.

For more information on Junes EU Referendum and how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our currency experts on 01494 725 353 or email me rjh@currencies.co.uk.

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