Last week President Trump's summit with the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was cut short without an agreement, however there were steps forward to reduce tensions.  President Trump confirmed that large military war games with the South Koreans would not take place as the North Koreans saw them as a direct threat of an invasion.  We have also seen conversations between the US and China on trade de-escalate with steps forward towards avoiding further hikes in tariffs.  This in itself has been seen as a step forward reducing global tensions and as a result it weakened the CHF making it cheaper to buy.

Currency Pair% Change in 1 monthDifference on £200,000
GBPCHF3.5%CHF9,350

The GBPCHF rate recently climbed over 2% within the last 7 days. Rates now sit close to a near 8 months high, representing an attractive time to buy the CHF as it has climbed by over 7% since the start of the year adding a further CHF 19,000 on a £200,000 transfer.

Key non farm US economic data

Is the next global recession around the corner?

There has been a growing realisation that the traditional recession cycle of 10-12 years is coming to an end and there could well be another recession inbound.  Where the 'crash' could well come from is still widely unknown but with a rapid growth in credit recently echoing what was seen with the sub-prime market place in the US.

For example, some banks are now offering mortgages up to 90% or even 95% loan to value with additional cashback incentives and we all know how that ended last time. 

Traders are now quick to respond to any worries with capital flows moving quicker than ever before. The CHF is probably one of the quickest to respond as it seen as a global safe haven meaning its demand climbs along with its price in times of uncertainty, while falling in value becoming cheaper to buy in times of calm.

 

Economic data improves in Switzerland

Economic data for the Swiss Franc has also been strong recently, this morning consumer Price index data was released showing signs of improvements in the domestic economy.  Unemployment data is due on Thursday along with the latest foreign reserve data. Both of which will be of interest to the CHF however I personally expect events in Westminster to be a bigger driver for the GBPCHF pairing this week with steps forward in the Brexit deal being the largest driver.

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