James Lovick
Associate Director
GBP supported on better outlook
Pound Sterling forecast: The Pound continues to maintain this higher ground and was boosted on an increase in UK house prices.
The Pound continues to maintain this higher ground against most of the major currencies including the Euro with rates hovering close to the 1.15 barrier for the GBP/EUR pair and creating a good opportunity for those clients looking to buy Euros. The table below shows the movements for a number of GBP pairings yesterday:
| Currency Pair | % Change | Difference on £200,000 | |
|---|---|---|---|
 GBP |  EUR | 0.25% | €580 EUR |
| GBP |  USD | 0.6% | $1760 USD |
| GBP |  CAD | 0.8% | $2960 CAD |
The Pound was boosted in morning trade after it was reported by Halifax that house prices climbed sharply in March by 1.5%, the biggest gain since August last year. Whilst not the most prominent economic indicator it does still prove as a useful gauge as to the health of the economy. It is normally the construction and housing sectors which are the first to drop sharply before an economic downturn so the data is at least welcome news for GBP.
The main focus will now be on tomorrow's industrial and manufacturing production numbers for February although if last week's data is anything to go by we could see a drop in production which could weigh on the Pound. There is a good chance that the Q1 GDP may be slightly weaker than Q4 and this could have a negative impact on Sterling exchange rates.
The effects from the cold winter blast from the 'Beast from the East' have recently been highlighted in the economic data although the markets so far have shrugged off the poorer numbers as a one off.
UK Data – GDP Focus
Data for the UK is particularly light this week with no economic data today although Monetary Policy Committee member Andy Haldane will be speaking this morning and any clues offered as to the next UK interest rate increase could see volatility for the Pound.
Tomorrow afternoon sees the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) which will provide its Gross Domestic product (GDP) estimate for the 2nd quarter. Although this is not the official data release the numbers are seen as an excellent precursor to the official data and can give a good gauge as to what the future data might look like. Anything positive from this release could help support the pound and end up in a small rally higher.
For more information on how upcoming events could affect your currency transfer, call our currency brokers on 01494 725 353 or email me directly at jll@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively, you can set a rate alert here.
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