Fears over the current state of the UK economy have continued to manifest themselves over recent days, in line with the greatest signs of stress shown since the Eurozone economy and double-dip recession six years ago.

The Pound has struggling to make any impact against the other major currencies, which seems to be a direct result of the current malaise inside the UK economy. The table below shows the movement in exchnage rates, and the resulting difference in a number of currencies you could have achieved when buying £200,000.00 during the high and low points of the past month.

Currency Pair% ChangeDifference on £200,000
GBP/EUR1%€2,460
GBP/USD2.2%$6,020
GBP/AUD3.1%AUD$11,220

Investor confidence in Sterling has been drained, following a seemingly endless run of poor UK economic data. In truth it’s been some of the toughest few weeks that’s Sterling has had to endure in recent memory, with the Bank of England’s (BoE) decision not to raise interest rates last month seemingly the catalyst for its recent demise.

Since that juncture we’ve seen a very poor run of economic data, culminating in Monday’s disastrous Manufacturing data. The figure was well below the market predicted result and was in fact the worst figures seen since 2012.

Investors have reacted by shying away from the Pound, as fears over Brexit continue to engulf the market.
Pound Sterling exchange rate volatility ahead

House of Commons vote may bring some short-term relief for the Pound

Those clients holding GBP were brought some respite earlier this week, following Tuesday’s House of Commons Brexit vote. It was confirmed that MP’s have voted against the House of Lords vote, on the basis that the government has agreed to introduce an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill. This will give Parliament a “meaningful vote” but not the decisive say on any final Brexit deal.

Whilst the government had to concede some ground, the decision at least fell in line with Prime Minister Theresa May’s objective and it seemed as though the Pound may make a move against both the EUR & USD.

However, yesterday’s decision by SNP members to leave Westminster during the Prime Minister’s Questions, has once again propelled the issue back under the spotlight. It may not have directly impacted Sterling’s value but was yet another example of how there are growing concerns over the governments perceived “power grab” in regards to the EU Withdrawal Bill.

Looking at yesterday’s market movement and GBP/EUR rates moved back towards 1.14, whilst Cable moved back above 1.34 the high.

However, as per the recent trends any Sterling spikes have proved unsustainable. The single currency fought back, with the Pound falling back towards 1.13, whist the USD recovered back below 1.34 by the close of European trading yesterday.

The Pound has found some more support against the commodity-based currencies such as the AUD & CAD but this is more to do with the current global demise and lack of investor confidence in these riskier based currencies.

I am not anticipating any major spike over the coming days and as such those clients with upcoming GBP currency exchanges to make, may wish protecting their position against further devaluation.

However, yesterday’s decision by SNP members to leave Westminster during the Prime Minister’s Questions, has once again propelled the issue back under the spotlight. It may not have directly impacted Sterling’s value but was yet another example of how there are growing concerns over the governments perceived “power grab” in regards to the EU Withdrawal Bill.

Looking at yesterday’s market movement and GBP/EUR rates moved back towards 1.14, whilst Cable moved back above 1.34 the high.

However, as per the recent trends any Sterling spikes have proved unsustainable. The single currency fought back, with the Pound falling back towards 1.13, whist the USD recovered back below 1.34 by the close of European trading yesterday.

The Pound has found some more support against the commodity-based currencies such as the AUD & CAD but this is more to do with the current global demise and lack of investor confidence in these riskier based currencies.

I am not anticipating any major spike over the coming days and as such those clients with upcoming GBP currency exchanges to make, may wish protecting their position against further devaluation. 

For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.

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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.