Due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding Brexit, and open questioning of Theresa May's political strategy the Pound has struggled to sustain any gains for the most part of this year. The table below shows the difference in a number of currencies you could have achieved when buying £200,000.00 during the high and low points of the past month.
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
The UK’s economic well-being has been the subject of much debate over recent months and the fluctuation in the Pound’s value has mirrored this. Whilst there have been some positive strides made with Brexit negotiations, we are still in a position where we are left with far more questions than answers.
UK Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to pull her Conservative party in the same direction, with key members of her backroom team, to name no names, openly questioning her strategy and behind closed doors, probably her position in number 10.
The Pound in turn has struggled to sustain any improvements and despite finding some support over recent days against both the EUR & USD, has yet to make any lasting impression against the majority of major currencies during the first half of 2018.
There have been some false dawns, in particular last month’s surge against the EUR & USD, but these have been few and far between
It is clear that investors’ long-term confidence in the UK economy and ultimately the Pound has been tempered. This is due for the most part, to the on-going uncertainty around Brexit, which continues to cast a dark shadow over the UK economy.
In my opinion until negotiations have been resolved, one way or another, it is unlikely that investor confidence will grow significantly and as such, the Pound looks set to be handicapped over the coming months and even beyond.
Of course, market conditions can change very quickly but based on recent trends and developments, there are certainly no guarantees that any changes will to be positive.
Looking at the current data and Friday’s Gross Domestic Product figures confirmed that the UK economy had grown at its slowest pace in the past five years. This follows a run of inconsistent data, with inflation falling again this month, another indication that we are unlikely to see the Bank of England (BoE) raise interest rates anytime soon.
Looking ahead and it is a quiet week for UK data, following yesterday’s spring bank holiday.
Consumer Confidence figures on Wednesday and housing data on Thursday, should be followed closely by anyone who has an upcoming Sterling currency exchange to execute.
For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.
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