The Pound is having mixed fortunes at present but has been boosted by some positive UK economic data this week. What further data could have a positive impact on the Pound towards the end of the week? The table below shows the range of exchnage rates throughout the past month, demonstrating the importance of timing your transfer to maximise on your return.
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
The official Unemployment Rate dropped to 4%, the lowest levels seen in over 40 years. This gave Sterling a boost against its Euro counterpart and helped curb any further losses against the USD. It also saw its value increase against the AUD and some of the other commodity based currencies.
This positive feeling was cemented following the release of yesterday’s PPI Inflation figures, which showed some more encouraging numbers, helping to solidify the Pound’s recent upturn.
This respite will certainly be welcomed by any clients holding Sterling currency positions, following increased pressure on the Pound over recent weeks.
The media has been quick to report on the current malaise in Brexit talks, which in turn is helping to fuel a negative perception amongst the public and investors alike. Speculation has grown that a no-deal scenario with the EU is more than just an unlikely possibility, an outcome that could potentially intensify a sharp downturn in Sterling’s value.
This negative reporting and the growing possibility of no agreement being reached with the EU by March’s deadline, has sapped investors' risk appetite and GBP’s value has dipped accordingly. Therefore, it is no coincidence in my opinion that Sterling’s relative upturn this week, has coincided with almost no media reports referencing Brexit or the negative connotations attached with it.
UK Prime Minster Theresa May, and many senior ministers on are annual leave, meaning that no news certainly seems to equal good news when it comes to Brexit at present.
Looking ahead, it may be that clients holding Sterling have an opportunity to achieve a better rate this week, than they may have envisaged earlier in the month.
If clients are willing to hold out in the hope of further gains, today's UK Retail Sales figures and tomorrow's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate by the NIESR could well prove pivotal. With Retail Sales expected to show an improvement to 3%, expect increased volatility in Sterling’s value if the figure is released outside of the anticipated remit.
For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.
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