The Bank of England met yesterday and delivered their latest Interest Rate decision, where all 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously voted to keep interest rates on hold at 0.75%. This announcement, which can usually be a key mover for Sterling exchange rates, caused the Pound to weaken slightly against the Euro, however still managed to remain in the 1.12s holding on to the small gains seen this week. However the Pound actually strengthened against the US Dollar to above the 1.31 mark which hasn’t been seen since July. More on this, as well as the subsequent meeting minutes that followed in today's Sterling report. The table below shows the range of exchange rates for a number of currency pairings troughout the past month.
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
It was almost certain that the Bank of England would choose to hold rates at this meeting, mainly because they last decided to hike rates at their last meeting in August, which was only the second hike seen in the last decade. It would have been highly unlikely to see two hikes in two consecutive months, especially considering the political concerns the UK economy is currently facing – Brexit and rising global trade tensions. In fact many economists are now predicting the next interest rate hike to take place after the UK departs from the EU.
However there were some positive points to take from the Summary afterwards, including Growth forecasts for the third quarter of this year being raised from 0.4% to 0.5%, which can be mostly attributed to warmer weather over the summer aiding stronger consumer spending. BoE Governor Mark Carney will be speaking this morning at 11:00am and is likely to give some hints to the direction UK Monetary Policy is expected to take in the coming months, and could therefore be a mover for GBP exchange rates.
The UK Government published 28 notices yesterday aimed at businesses and the public, in order to prepare them for the event of a no deal Brexit. The notices cover a wide range of topics including driving licensing, mobile roaming and travelling to the EU with a UK passport. The notices were well received by many, however Brexit secretary Dominic Raab remains confident a deal being reached was ‘still by far and away the most likely outcome’.
The EU are also continuing with preparations in case of a no-deal, and leaders will discuss at the EU Leaders Summit next week whether a special Brexit summit should be held around 13th-15th November.
As Brexit continues to dominate headlines and the Pound remains under considerable pressure as negotiations continue, clients with a Sterling currency requirement could benefit from being in contact with our team of brokers so that we can alert you of any spikes as they happen.
For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.
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