The face off between the US and China has been well documented in our reports, having been a considerable driver for the currency markets over the last 12 months in particular.

Currency Pair% Change (Month)Difference on £200,000
GBPUSD0.55%$1,400

The talks took a turn for the better over the weekend which may well mark a change in trend for the dollar's perspectives over it's major currency pairings. Typically, we have seen the greenback gain substantial ground across the board, as investors placed their positions in the safe haven dollar whilst threats of heavy handed trade tariffs sent shock waves around the global markets. 

US/China to dial down tariffs, boosting economic cooperation

On Saturday however, whilst the G20 summit took way in Japan, Presidents Trump and Xi agreed to a cease fire in a bid to rekindle relationships. China have confidently stated they can agree to 90% of what the US are asking for whilst Trump seemed open to taking a more empathetic view on the controversial Huwai case.

The Dollar is yet to react to the news so far. As we have seen with Brexit, it is often the final details that anchor the most uncertainty. However as talks progress, the more likely investors might be tempted to reach out for riskier prospects and potentially lead to a weaker dollar over time.

It will be interesting to see if this theory is accelerated by Trump's visit to North Korea on Sunday too.

Key data releases to consider for US dollar buyers

Those with short term US Dollar exposure should have plenty of opportunities to time their transactions. This afternoon's expected minor contraction in Manufacturing PMI for the US may well set the tone for dollar exchange rates in fist half of the week. Friday's Non Farm Payroll data will likely be the strongest driver however and could see GBP/USD exchange rates drop even further.

After the catastrophic drop in May's readings, this month's number could prove pivotal. The number of new jobs created is expected to have rebounded however and could well lead to the Dollar ending the week on a high.

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