A French Presidential election is a two-round system. In the first round, (taking place on April 23rd) electorates cast their vote for one of several candidates.
Subsequently, (unless one candidate reaches 50% of the first-round vote – a feat never achieved), the two candidates with the highest number of first round votes face each other again 14 days later in the second round, this time on 7th May.
Whether you take Donald Trump becoming president of United States, Britain voting to leave the EU or Leicester City winning the Premier League as your example it seems the impossible keeps happening. However, it will be at Marine Le Pen’s door that this run of continuous upsets comes to an end, and here’s why I believe this may be the case:
It is voter’s second preference will be the pivotal factor in this election. More specifically the second preference of electorates voting for a candidate eliminated in the first round. Whilst Marine Le Pen is expected to win the first round by a slim majority with 26% of votes to Macron’s 22%. A BVA poll suggests she will only win 8% of second choice votes. On the other hand, Macron is expected to win an additional 25% of votes through this poll.
Therefore, if you have a Euro purchase requirement it may be wise to contact your personal experienced broker here at Foreign Currency Direct today to take advantage of the currently overvalued GBP/EUR rates today before Marine Le Pen’s grip on the campaign begins to fade.
If you have a Euro requirement, Thursday is the day that needs to be in your diary! We see highly-anticipated base and deposit interest rate decisions (released at 12:45pm), subsequent monetary policy statement and press conference with ECB president Mario Draghi (starting at 1:30pm) all within a very short time frame. Following the 10-year high investor sentiment figures released on Monday for March we may see an opportunity for the Euro to strengthen if a more hawkish Mario Draghi gives optimism for the Euro.
It may be wise to get in touch with your personal experienced broker here at Foreign Currency Direct to detail any requirements you may have, in order to help you take advantage of any market spikes that may arise. Call us on 01494 725 353 or email me here and a member of our trading floor will be happy to assist you.
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