Marine Le Pen losing further ground bolsters the Euro

The first polls released following a Monday night televised debate between the two leading candidates, Macron and Le Pen, as well as three candidates considered out of contention, show that the anti-EU Le Pen is losing ground in the polls fast. The French election system is slightly different, in that there are two rounds, with the top two candidates from the first round going through to a final ballot. Initially Le Pen was seen to be winning the first round but being edged out in the second.

A poll released by French company Elabe now has Macron winning the first round 26% to 24.5% and comfortably dismissing a challenge from Le Pen in the second 64% to 36%.

Whilst some polls back this and others suggest a thin margin for Le Pen in the first round, this is still significant that support is shifting towards Macron in the first round, boding terribly for Le Pen in the second.

This is bad news for Euro buyers from a currency perspective. Those currently in and potentially settling in France may disagree. One of the uncertainties holding the Euro’s values down was the promise from Le Pen of a Referendum of French membership.

Whilst Polls can be trusted about as far as they can be thrown these days, this is not 5-6% here and there, the gap between the two is widening.

The French election begins in the middle of April, and with the risk discussed above surrounding Sterling, Euro buyers may be wise to consider their options to lock in exchange rates, in the event market rates begin the run away from any planned budgets you have in place.

Eurozone economic bulletin to be released today

The economic bulletin presents the economic and monetary information which forms the basis for the Governing Council’s policy decisions in the Eurozone.

This is released monthly and should retain the fairly positive tone echoed by the European Central Bank in their recent policy decisions. They have cut down on emergency monetary stimulus, and there are even talks of an interest rate hike above the paltry 0 % they currently advertise.

The move to any capital return in holding Euros could tip the balance for many investors and increased demand for the single currency would make it a much more expensive prospect.

Hints will be given in the report, likely more specific and detailed than speeches to journalists as the Council will use this information to inform real policy decisions. As such the boost to the Euro at the beginning of the month may be exaggerated later this morning.

For more information on how this bulletin could affect your Euro buying or selling requirement, please feel free to get in touch with myself at jjp@currencies.co.uk.

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