This Euro exchange rate update will address the factors that are likely to affect EUR rates this week if you are buying abroad or making a currency transfer. In the table below you’ll see high to low GBP/USD exchange rate movement when exchanging £200,000 to Euros in the last month.
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
Similarly to the Pound, the Euro has not been having the best time against the Dollar. Yesterday EURUSD went under the 1.19 figure and is now trading at a four-month low.
During the last month's highs, a 200,000 Euro trade could have earned $248,008, whereas a trade at yesterday's close would earn $238,490 - almost five figures worse off.
Whilst people in the UK were enjoying the bank holiday, there was scarce macroeconomic data on the continent. Germany factory orders fell in March by 0.9% against the expected increase by 0.5%.
Furthermore, the EU Sentix Investor Confidence Index fell to 19.2 from 19.6, weakening for the fourth consecutive month. This index is a monthly survey - composed of 36 different indicators - which shows the current market opinion and expectations for the coming semester. A lower reading is seen as negative or bearish for the Euro. These two releases explain the Euro losing yesterday against both the Dollar and the Pound.
Air France shares fell yesterday by more than 10% as CEO Jean-Marc Janaillac said he would resign over the rejection of a pay deal with the workers unions. On Sunday, France's Finance Minister threatened the airline could disappear if it did not become more competitive. Janaillac's exit - and the repeated exits of Air France CEO's - raises questions about the airline's ability to cut costs and compete with Gulf-carriers and low-cost airlines.
Macron has accumulated many air miles in his first year as President and - whilst he is succeeding at improving France and Europe's reputation on the international scene, he - is coming under criticism nationally. Air France staff have been on strike for the fourteenth day since February and this poses a challenge to President Emmanuel Macron as he nears his first year in office. The AirFrance strike is coupled with trying to find a deal that will help the debt-ridden national rail company (SNCF) to reach financial breakeven by 2022 amidst strikes and Union marches. The SNCF reform is set to be voted in the Senate on May 29th.
Too many of our readers, this may seem like another summer of French strikes which will die out in the summer. However, I feel that these negotiations with the Unions and reforms of the French economy are paramount to Euro strength in 2018. In Germany, Angela Merkel's grip on power has weakened and Britain is preoccupied with Brexit. Mr Macron wants to liberalise French labour laws, is creating a more business-friendly environment and wants a far-more integrated Eurozone and a unified asylum centre. To strengthen the Euro, he will need to strengthen the Franco-German alliance and reposition France at the core of European decision making, but his plans for Europe will depend on success at home. If the markets went in Macron's favour, I would expect the Euro to strengthen substantially.
Today - is V-E day in France - and Thursday - is Ascension day in France and Germany - are bank holidays. Today German Trade Balance and Industrial Production figures are expected to somewhat strengthen the Euro. The headline event of the week is European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's speech. His comments will determine how positive or negative the Euro's trend in the short-term is so keep in touch with your Account Manager if changing Euro's as the week will be volatile.
For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353.
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