Thursday appears to be the most important day of the week with the ECB, (European Central Bank Interest) Rate decision. The market is looking for any news on the continued plans to either raise interest rates by September 2019 or reduce their current QE (Quantitative Easing program). More on the factors likely to impact GBPEUR rates, including the interest rate decision from both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday, below; the table displays the range of Sterling Euro exchange rates for the past month and the potential difference in Euro return you could have achieved when selling £200,000.00 during that period.

Currency Pair% ChangeDifference on £200,000
GBPEUR2.81%€7,280

Recent concerns for the Eurozone centre around economic performance and whether or not they will have to scale back their ambitions. With just 0.4% growth in Q2, the economy is still not quite on the kind of trajectory that would lead to the conditions for an interest rate hike. With German factory orders having declined in recent weeks some are speculating the ECB might even have to scale back the plans to end the QE program this year.

Global Trade Wars are also a major concern in Europe. The economic recovery is slow and fraught; relations between the EU and the US could easily unravel again. This may easily disrupt European economic growth and is a real cause for concern. Any backtracking by the ECB on Thursday could see a weaker Euro.

Other economic news tomorrow sees Employment change, last week’s data showed Unemployment in the EU at 8.2%, its best reading since Nov 2008. Wednesday is Industrial Production data but I expect Thursday to capture the most attention from the market. Clients buying or selling Euros might wish to get in touch in advance to see what may suit them best.

ECB Interest Rate Decision – Thursday 13th September

GBPEUR Focus – ‘Super Thursday’

Thursday is a massive day for GBPEUR with the latest Interest rate decisions from both the ECB and the Bank of England. Brexit uncertainties seem in the main to continue to hold back the Pound but this will not last forever. The very choppy nature of the pair means nothing can be taken for granted. I remain of the opinion until a deal is better understood and a no-deal much less likely, the Pound will remain the much weaker.

With the UK releasing their decision at 12 then the ECB at 12.45 and a Press Conference after at 13.30, Thursday looks to be the most important day this of this week, and possibly the month on GBPEUR rates.

Far-right party gains in Sweden could unsettle the Euro

Whilst Sweden has its own currency, the Swedish Krona - or SEK, events in Sweden this weekend were watched closely by Europe. A historically liberal country, which has borne the most immigration per person throughout Europe, saw both far-right and left parties leave their election split and headed for a weak coalition.

The SEK has actually risen slightly as it was feared the far-right might have done better. However, their rise in popularity echoes many of the voices throughout Europe, which may only grow louder in the future and could unsettle the Euro.

For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.

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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.