The report below looks into the implications of a reduction in growth forecast figures on the single currency. The table below shows the difference in return you could have received in Euros depending on when you carried out your transfer during the past month, when selling £200,000.00.
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
The new forecast shows expected growth will now be 2.1% which is over 10% lower than the 2.4% recorded in 2017. Italy will also further suffer as they’re expected to only show a little more growth than the UK, which considering the current circumstances in Britain is worrying. There could be a slight silver lining for the European Central Bank if there is an introduction of tariffs and oil prices rise in the form of inflation.
Mario Draghi the President of the ECB is under pressure for clarity on an interest hike and has constantly pushed the prospects into the distance. One of the main reasons for this is the lack of inflation within the Eurozone.
There could now over the course of the next few months be increases in the cost of goods consumers buy as production costs rise. From the perspective of the Euro this could certainly help to bolster the chances of an interest rate hike as inflation is tackled by raising interest rates.
Over the next few months the GBP/EUR rate could start to rise as the UK’s Brexit plan is contemplated by the EU. If it is good news I believe there could be a few cent movements immediately. If you’re looking to sell Euros for Sterling and are holding on for the rate to fall, I think you may desire the current levels in the next few months.
Yesterday the EU did report some positive industrial production data showing improvements from May to June and German inflation remained at 2.1%, a percent ahead of the whole Eurozone.
The middle of next week the Consumer Price Index for June will be released and is expected to show little movement from the previous month. Other than inflation data there is no releases next week, however this doesn’t mean there couldn’t be market volatility with so much happening across the continent.
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