EU industrial production data released yesterday arrived in negative territory at -0.3% for the month of March raising concerns for the EU economy. Focus will look to this morning’s EU Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers which are expected to hold steady at 0.4%.

Currency Pair% Change (Month)Difference on £200,000
GBPEUR3.2%€7,350
Eurozone Economy contracting

The markets are expecting an upturn for Germany which could help bring the numbers up for the bloc. Germany has recently seen a rise in exports having jumped 1.5% from February to March. Germany has shown some signs of improvement in its economy after a poor run of data last year having narrowly escaped recession at the end of 2018. There is now an expectation for a rebound in the engine room of the EU economy. The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China will weigh heavily on future growth especially following the recent escalation. If there is to be a full-blown global trade war, then some European economies particularly Germany could suffer with their strong manufacturing bases.

EU employment change numbers are also released this morning giving some clues as to the strength of the labour market.

An improvement in the employment numbers is generally seen as positive for consumer spending and hence economic growth so any strengthening today could help support the euro.

GBP/EUR before European elections

The European Commission stated yesterday that the EU will remain on a “Brexit break” until there is change in London. The chief British Brexit spokesman Olly Robbins was in Brussels yesterday to discuss potential changes to the political declaration although without agreement in parliament the uncertainty for GBP/EUR remains. The European elections will be important for the individual EU countries as well as Britain although it is in the UK in particular where these elections are about to become so debated. The outcome of these European elections which could throw up some surprises could result in high volatility for GBP vs EUR rates.

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