The vote in which members of the Social Democrat Party will decide on the deal between the SPD and Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has the potential to cause the Euro some weakness, if the coalition isn't agreed upon. The table below shows the difference in Euros you could have achieved when buying £200,000.00 during the high and low points during yesterday's trading.

Currency Pair% ChangeDifference on £200,000
GBPEUR0.9%€2040 EUR

Euro Uncertainty from German Election

This weekend should give new direction for the future of German politics after what was been a long period of uncertainty following the German election last autumn, which saw Chancellor Angela Merkel unable to form a government. This week has seen progress between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democrat Party (SPD) after the CDU voted heavily in favour of a deal for a grand coalition once again. The final test will be on Sunday when the results of a postal vote for the SPD’s 464,000 members will be announced. If the members vote down the deal then the Euro could be in for a rocky period, should Angela Merkel need to form a minority government or call another election.

The long spell for Angela Merkel who is in her fourth term as Chancellor also appears to be coming to an end with a new hope in German politics and who the German media has referred to as Mini Merkel. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer from the Christian Democratic Union appears to be the next in line as Merkel’s successor offering a similar political line although she takes a tougher stance on immigration, a factor that has been so prominent in seeing the Chancellors popularity wane. Expect more volatility for the Euro this weekend depending on how the postal vote turns out.

European Politics Driving EUR

Italian Elections Loom – Euro Uncertainty

Italian leaders are in the midst of heavy campaigning ahead of this weekend’s election taking place on Sunday. The results should be confirmed in the early hours of Monday morning which could see a wave of volatility next week as soon as the European markets open. Immigration is going to be a significant theme in this election and the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement which is leading in the polls is taking a tougher line on the issue.

The 5-star movement had supported a referendum on Euro membership although that stance has softened somewhat under the new leader Luigi Di Maio although such actions couldn’t be ruled out if the party is able to form a government.

All in all a very heavy weekend of politics in the EU which is likely to shape Euro exchange rates - Any political upsets are likely to see the Euro weaken.

EU unemployment data is released this morning which can always create some market volatility. Expectation is for a small improvement to 8.6% for January and anything positive could help lend support to the Euro. Purchasing Managers Index data for the manufacturing sector is also released and should give some idea as to the health of the sector.

For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.


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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.