Following positive comments from three ECB policy makers this weekend, the Euro has found support as the current QE measures appear to be coming to and end this year. This Euro report discusses how this, and other factors continue to affect EUR rates. The table below shows the difference in Euros you could have achieved when buying £200,000.00 during the high and low points yesterday.

Currency Pair% ChangeDifference on £200,000
GBPEUR3.12%€6,187 EUR
German budget spells trouble for EU

Euro Supported on ECB Outlook

The Euro has received a boost against most of the major currencies following upbeat comments from three European Central Bank policy members over the weekend. All three policy makers pointed towards the ECB concluding the tapering of its asset purchasing scheme later this year with a view to raising interest rates in 2019. French central bank governor Villeroy de Galhau painted a positive outlook on inflation and hinted that it would continue to rise. In these more hawkish comments it was the hint that interest rates may rise sooner than previously though which is supporting the Euro. Looking forward it will be the inflation data which will be closely monitored as to when policy will change.

Data is light from the EU today although consumer confidence and economic confidence data could see Euro volatility. Yesterday’s construction output data took a dive in January although trade balance data showed a healthy surplus, although slightly less than expected.

Italian politics – Euro volatility

Italian politics are likely to continue to have an impact on Euro exchange rates in these coming weeks following the hung parliament seen earlier this month. The Eurosceptic and anti-establishment Five Star Movement led by Luigi di Maio and which took 32% of the vote making them the largest party in parliament is considering joining forces with Lega (The League).

Discussions have started with meetings expected to take place later this week and any developments here in the formation of a government could see the Euro react. The problem for these two parties is they take very different views on a number of issues. The Five Star Movement took votes in the poorer regions in the South whilst Lega for example seeks to have a flat income tax of 15% which favours the rich. There is still the possibility that a government may not be formed and it could go to another general election highlighting a volatile period ahead.

For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.

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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.