Leader of the National Front party Marine Le Pen has been gaining momentum in the polls, which has led to euro weakness. Le Pen has not feared to outline 200 people were killed in terror attacks in just over two years, and she believes and exit from the European Union would help prevent future terror attacks as France would take control of their borders. Latest polls released earlier in the week are suggesting the anti EU candidate is ahead at 27 percentage points compared to Francois Fillon and Macron both on 20 percentage points.
It’s key to note the polls are for the first round of votes and when two leaders go head to head the polls are suggesting Le Pen will then fall behind.
As for the bookies, at the start of the month Macron was leading Le Pen by 20 points and that gap has now narrowed to 3 points just showing Le Pen has the momentum to win the elections.
Marine Le Pen’s chief of staff was put under investigation yesterday as reports are suggesting she has misused EU funds. More to come as this story develops, however could this scandal be the start of the end for Le Pen’s Election campaign?
With the triggering of Article 50 potentially less than 6 weeks away, the question my clients are asking themselves is whether they believe the pound will lose momentum in the run up to deadline day and will this loss in momentum outweigh a weakening euro due to the French Election. If you rewind the clock back to the end of October 2016, GBP/EUR exchange rates were 8 cents lower than where they are now, therefore in my opinion there is certainly scope for rates to fall.
As the triggering of Article 50 is before the French election I personally believe exchange rates could fall in the upcoming weeks therefore if you are purchasing Euros short term (next 6-8 weeks) the 2 month highs that we saw yesterday are worth taking advantage of.
To be kept up to date with regular updates that will impact GBP/EUR exchange rates get in contact with your account manager today to outline your requirements on 01494 725 353.
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