A heavy drop in consumer confidence and the bleak ZEW/IFO surveys, in particular from Germany, once again highlighted the economic frailties within the bloc, and teed up a very cautious European Central Bank statement in which they reiterated that a shift in economic policy is a long way away from being considered.

Ultimately, this all did very little to help the euro recover much ground against a rampant sterling and has led many looking to buy Pounds with Euros to drastically reconsider their positions.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this negativity filter through to Thursday’s key GDP release. We have already seen the IMF recalibrate its growth forecasts for the Eurozone having sensed the a lack of investor confidence as a result of the global trade tensions.

If this does prove to be the case there is quite a strong argument to suggest the Pound might continue to push on past the 1.17 mark.

The Italian Prime minister Conte may well have rocked the boat over the weekend, once again criticising France and Germany for pursuing national interests whist pursuing “true European integration”. I think more than ever this year, European unity and disunity could prove to be a key driver on euro exchange rates, particularly with the EU soon to lose a pro-euro figurehead in Merkel. Uncertainty from this may provide a bit of volatility to start the week; get in touch with your account manager to see how we can help you make the most of your currency transfer.

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