The Euro has received a considerable boost after the first round of voting in the French election which sees Emanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen in to the second round. With less than two weeks to go before the final round the gloves will almost certainly come off in this race for the Presidency. As things stand today it is almost a guaranteed win for Emmanuel Macron which should help support the Euro. Those clients looking to buy Euros may wish to consider taking the safer option by securing before the 7th May and take the recent highs which are still available.
GBP/EUR may have tailed off marginally but there are still very attractive levels available for this pair and close to a 7-month high.
The political landscape is fast changing though and in a tactical move Marine Le Pen has stepped down as head of the French National party. She is effectively distancing herself to try and win votes from the fallen candidates from the first round of voting. She said, “I am no longer the president of the National Front. I am the candidate for the French presidency”.
Marine Le Pen has moved to paint Emmanuel Macron as “Hollande's baby” which is a clever move considering Francois Fillon used the same approach in his campaign. Her angle is to win those votes from Fillon by highlighting their common ground. Whilst Francois Hollande and Francois Fillon are asking voters to back Macron the far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melanchon has refused to back the favourite. It leaves a ray of hope for Marine Le Pen that she could still pick up votes from the left who are anti-establishment.
There is likely to be considerable volatility in these coming days and any error could seal the outcome and see a big shift in the price of the Euro. Emmanuel Macron for example has been criticised this week for jumping the gun and celebrating at a victory party with the Paris elite after his win on Sunday.
A low turnout on election day could also see Marine Le Pen do well. Those clients with a pending requirement would be wise to get in touch and look at taking the risk out of the volatile currency markets as a lot will happen in these coming weeks.
With no economic data from the EU today focus now moves to the European Central Bank meeting tomorrow. Whilst the option of boosting asset purchases is still available I am of the opinion that with the French election approaching we will see very little from ECB President Mario Draghi tomorrow. The slim chance of a Marine Le Pen win is real nonetheless and that would likely require a response from the ECB.
As polls continue to show Macron well ahead of Le Pen in this years election, those with a Euro buying requirement may be wise to take advantage of the monthly highs for GBP/EUR. Call us on 01494 725 353 or email me here to get a quote.
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