The main headline today will come from Mario Draghi, who will likely discuss the upcoming Referendum and his measures to protect the Euro rather than the positive inflationary figures released yesterday.

How will the Euro fare in the run up to the Referendum?

How the value of the Euro will be affected with the Referendum vote has gone largely unnoticed compared to the sheer uproar surrounding the potential for a ‘Grexit’ last year.

There are a couple of defining differences which account for this. First is that the UK doesn’t have the same issue of debt obligations tied up in the Referendum vote itself. The UK having a separate currency in this situation also keeps a lot of the negative consequences in the currency markets concentrated in the Pound.

But the Euro has been weakening. It is down against the Dollar and has been edging closer to the resistance level of 1.10. This is also an unprecedented period in the currency world with little pretext to judge how the market will react overall. As such Euro sellers should temper their expectations for gains against the Pound dropping below 1.20 in the run-up to the vote itself, for the value of your Euros will likely be tested as well.

Today’s highlight will be Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank’s, speech. Despite the better than expected inflation figures for the Eurozone last month which came out yesterday morning, Draghi’s speech should be heavily tempered around the upcoming EU referendum in the UK.

Like Mark Carney he will likely be asked how he will protect the EU economy from any significant backlash. With the focus put back on the Euro, and severity of the situation highlighted, we may see some final buying opportunities for the Euro before events in the UK dominate the headlines next week. His speech is late in the afternoon, so filling your requirement may come down to the wire, but our trading lines are open until 5pm if you wish to take advantage of any spikes which may occur.

With the Referendum next week, markets are expecting further volatility and as it stands, the Euro is still very attractive to buy. Call us today on 01494 725 353 or email me here for further assistance.


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