The ECB monetary policy statement will be released this Thursday, which could show some insight into the intended end date for Quantitative Easing. Previous mentions of this have hinted at a total reduction is asset purchasing by September of this year. The Euro report below looks at how this information could impact the Euro, amongst political uncertainty in the EU currently. The table below shows the difference in Euros you could have achieved when buying £200,000.00 during the high and low points of the past week.
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
With all eyes on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy statement on Thursday and Inflation data on Friday, its been a relatively slow start to the weak for the Euro with little movement against its major currency parings.
Despite this the currency has held well, considering the poor survey results released by the German ZEW economic research institute yesterday.
The ZEW take qualitative data from approximately 300 economists and analysts which is then used as an indicator of the Germany’s economic future for the next 6 months. The survey shows the balance between those analysts who are optimistic about the countries economic future and those who are not.
According to the ZEW President Achim Wambach, the recent escalation in the trade dispute with the United States as well as fears over the new Italian government pursuing a policy which could potentially destabilize the financial markets, has left its mark on the outlook for the German economy.
In fact, the result produced the lowest reading seen since September 2012, which is hardly reassuring from Euro’s strongest economic partner.
As stated above, the main attention this week for the EUR will be on Thursday’s ECB meeting and the CPI Inflation data release on Friday.
The meeting comes at an interesting time, since it appears the bank is prepared to discuss an end date for the Quantitative Easing programme (QE) despite the recent political turbulence in Italy and poor economic data released during the 1st quarter.
However, Inflation has also begun to pick up, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising to 1.9% last month and the expected figure to remain the same, close to the bank’s 2% target.
I expect there to be EUR volatility for the rest of the week, but I would not discount a strong finish so clients looking to trade Euros should contact their account manager for more information. Feel free to get in touch with your account manager by calling our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.
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