The GBP/EUR pairing has remained relatively rangebound over the last few weeks, with mid-market interbank levels ending last week’s trading below 1.12.
|Currency Pair||% Change (Month)||Difference on £200,000|
There are arguments to suggest that this trend may continue, as the Brexit deadlock remains with the threats of weakening economic conditions, such as the recent rumours of a recession, in the event that the UK departs from the EU without a deal in place.
Recent eurozone data hasn’t provided much confidence for analysts. Last week’s retail data saw a drop of 0.5% from the previous year. This could be a sign of fragility for the bloc and with current inflation levels currently 0.8% below EU targets, this could affect short-medium term sentiment in the single currency.
As there are no key economic data releases this week, investor attention might focus on any developments that follow the European Central Bank’s (ECB) non-monetary policy meeting tomorrow morning.
It was announced last week that Christine Lagarde, the former French Finance Minister and head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), will replace Mario Draghi as President of the European Central Bank (ECB), when his tenure ends later this year.
It has been suggested by a number of economic sources that her politically minded approach and experience with fiscal policy, could provide optimism for the single currency. Christine was recently described by ECB board member Beniot Coeure as ‘uniquely qualified’ for the role, in the face of the current challenges inside and outside of Europe.
As her transition into the role takes place, there will be interest surrounding how her approach might affect the strength of the euro, given the political and economic pressures that are currently affecting the Bloc, such as the ongoing trade pressures coming from the United States and fears of an economic slowdown within key eurozone economics.
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