The euro’s strength always looked under pressure entering 2019 as investors sought reassurance that the Eurozone economy’s lull was only temporary, as the European Central Bank (ECB), predicted back in December. The recent slowdown has now seen the International Money Fund (IMF) downgrade its global growth forecasts based on recession fears for Germany and Italy, prompting the euro to lose ground.

Currency Pair% Change in 1 monthDifference on £200,000
GBPEUR5.10%€15,030

Such discrepancy in the economic reality against the ECB’s own statements has seen the euro lose ground. We must also factor in some of the political concerns in the Eurozone with French President Macron unpopular at home and restlessness across Europe a concerning factor in approaching European elections.

Thursday is the latest Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data where Eurozone growth is expected to show up at 0.2% for Q4 2018. The news would confirm the single currency bloc as having less growth than the UK (0.3%) and the US at 2.7%.

Other factors to drive the euro this week will be tomorrow evening’s US interest rate decision where the US Federal Reserve’s commentary may move the dollar, influencing the euro. All in all, it is a very busy week for euro buyers and sellers with the currency looking unlikely to shake the more concerning tone it has picked up in the last two weeks.

ECB interest rate decision and monetary policy

Best time to buy euros in 20 months

The euro rate is 1 cent off the best time to buy euros since May 2017. A £250,000 purchase will today buy you €12,500 compared to the beginning of 2019, at last week’s highs of 1.16 the difference would have been €15,050 extra. This is some remarkable good fortune for euro buyers with pounds, considering the fact that the UK might be just 59 days away from a no-deal Brexit which may see sterling crash.The positivity that drove the pound higher could very easily disappear as the sentiments on Brexit drift and wane. It is not just the public desperate for some news on Brexit, so too are financial markets and with sterling volatility remaining high, the movements on GBPEUR are likely to be sharp, sudden and very tricky to forecast.

Today is a continuation of the Brexit debate in Parliament which will undoubtedly see the pound to euro rate pairing bear the brunt of any discontent and optimism over the plans. If you are looking to buy or sell euros today, next week or even in the months ahead, why not speak to our expert team for valuable insight into developing a personal strategy for your transfer.

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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.