Despite a clear win for the favourite Emmanuel Macron Euro exchange rates remain unsettled. Will Pound to Euro exchange rates push through the 1.20 resistance levels seen since the UK's Referendum? The table below provides Pound to Euro exchange rate movements year to date (YTD).
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
As most readers will be fully aware Emmanuel Macron won the French Presidency over the weekend, despite a late email leak causing concern for his PR team.
Macron was generally expected to win as most leading polls in France has him in the lead, and he actually got more of the vote than many had expected as he got 65% of the vote to Marine Le Pens 35%.
As well as leading in the polls for most of the last month he was also the candidate financial markets had hoped for due to his pro-EU stance, especially in comparison with the stanchly Eurosceptic Marine Le Pen who had previously suggested that France look into abandoning the Euro currency.
Despite the favoured candidate winning, the Euro has actually dropped against the Pound specifically since Macron as announced the winner which is the opposite of what many had predicted.
Had Le Pen of won the election I would’ve expected to see the Euro drop due to the pressure the Eurozone would have come under. I think it’s fair to say a win for the far-right candidate would have sent GBP/EUR above 1.20 which has been acting as a psychological barrier for some time now.
It appears that the Macron win was already priced into the Euros value, and it could well be profit taking from investors/traders that’s weakened the Euros value this week.
Personally, I think that GBP/EUR will exceed 1.20 sometime this year but it will take a major event or news release to give the pair the push it needs.
1.20 has acted as a barrier with the Pound to Euro rate hitting it and bouncing back off over 5 times since the Pound dropped so steeply immediately after the Brexit vote.
This Thursday’s key day for the UK (please see Sterling section) could create movement between GBP/EUR especially if there are hints of another BoE rate hike. Later today Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank will be giving a speech at 12pm. Markets tend to watch his speeches very closely and hang on his every word, so expect volatility around this time if he offers any insights into future ECB monetary policy.
These are some of the best levels to buy the Euro since the UK's Referendum, and clients with a Euro requirement may be wise to capitalise on the recent highs seen since the French Elections. Call us on 01494 725353 or email me here if you would like to discuss a quote.
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