The euro came out mildly stronger over the weekend after it was announced that New Democracy had won the Greek election. This has helped the euro to rise fractionally against the US dollar and the pound, as investors backed the more upbeat outlook. The euro has been weaker at parts in 2019 but is now performing strongly against the pound, with the interbank rate close to the best rates all year.
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New Democracy has won a majority, something that was lacking in Greek politics in recent years and has promised gentle reform but to try and unite Greeks. The previous administration under ‘Syriza’, a more left-wing base, lost lots of support following their capitulation to the demands of the EU, in implementing various budget saving measures.
Politics has been a key feature in 2019 too, with the currency market struggling to gauge the direction of the political situation. There has been a threat of a growing populism which the European elections in May did not ultimately support. This latest news is more news that actually, politically, there could be more reasons for optimism in the Eurozone. This may serve the euro well, as investors have confidence over the outlook.
The euro is performing well against sterling, with the interbank only 1-1.5 cents away from the best rates all year to sell euros for pounds. The recent strength on the euro, coupled with the weakness of sterling is presenting an opportunity for any clients selling euros for pounds.
This could continue with sterling performance very closely linked to Brexit, and investors eagerly awaiting some fresh news on what Brexit means. Unfortunately, the answer to that question is not likely to be known soon, and investors will probably have to wait to at least know who the new PM is, before we can get a clearer understanding of where GBP/EUR levels could go.
Suggestions Boris’ tendencies for no-deal will see the pound lower might already be priced in, but expectation of a ‘Boris bounce’ might also be misplaced with the UK economy struggling of late, and investors perhaps sceptical of the real substance of this character.
Clients buying euros with pounds might struggle to find the big move higher they are hoping for, with little on the economic calendar ahead, to suggest the pound is about to suddenly defy the current expectations and value being placed on it. If you have a sterling or euro position to consider, you may wish to get in touch with our team to discuss further.
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