Getting the best exchange rate can be achieved by understanding what is driving rates and the service of a specialist currency broker. Below are movements in just a month affecting the amount of Euros you would have achieved when buying £200,000 during the high and low points of the past 30 days.
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
After some better than expected UK Retail Sales data, the Euro immediately fought back with stronger than expected inflation data in the form of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index. Core inflation came out at 1.3% higher than the expected 1.2% and this kept the GBPEUR rate from pushing past 1.10 during yesterday’s trading session.
Eurozone Trade Balance also came out a lot higher showing strong signs for the economic bloc, which has also helped to support the Euro. Indeed, although the Euro is the strongest level against the Pound since October 2016, and an 18 month high reached recently vs the Euro clearly their export market remains very strong.
This morning the Eurozone will announce the latest Current Account data, which measures the movements of transactions in and out of the Eurozone and a strong reading will indicate a strong level of sentiment. At the same time Construction Output for June is due to be released. This has been going in an upwards direction recently and I think both sets of data could see the Euro have a strong finish to the end of the week against both the US Dollar and Sterling.
As the Euro is very strong against both the Pound and the US Dollar there are concerns starting to mount within the Eurozone of the single currency becoming too strong.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is due to be speaking next week at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which is a meeting that involves many central bank leaders. Previously Draghi has spoken out about the single currency and his use of QE so if he does mention that they may be tapering their current amount then this could see some further strength.
However, I think he will avoid the issue and the absence of any specific commentary could see the topic being avoided until the next official ECB interest rate decision.
The other event that could possible cause a wobble for the Euro is the upcoming German elections in September. Currently Angela Merkel is the clear favourite with a 14 point lead but we all remember what happened with the UK’s general election this year. Therefore, it is not a foregone conclusion and if we have any surprises coming in Germany then this could cause a problem for the Euro.
Overall I expect the Euro to remain strong against the Pound whilst the uncertainty continues, and this is great news for anyone looking to buy Pounds with Euros having gained potentially thousands from the ‘Brexit discount.’ Therefore, if you’re considering selling Euros it may be worth taking advantage of current exchange rates. Speak with your account manager for a live quote.
Thank you for reading my Euro currency report, if you have any questions about an upcoming transfer I would be more than happy to discuss them – you can contact me with any queries on 01494 725 353, or email me here.
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