Today MP’s in the House of Commons will have a vote on whether to insert a clause into the EU Withdrawal Bill that provides for an ‘amendable motion’ if there is no Brexit deal by February. This would provide for either an extension to the Article 50 window which ends March 29th 2019 or even allow ministers to call a second Referendum. The table below shows the range of exchange rates throughout the past month, demonstrating the difference in a number of currencies you could receive in return for £200,000.00.
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
If the Government wins, the Bill will then become law. However, with Theresa May holding a small majority in parliament there is lots of potential for her to lose the vote and if this happens the pound may lose value. Theresa May could even potentially face a leadership challenge if the bill is not passed, the scope for volatility from the event for the pound, is high. If you have a Sterling requirement speaking to your account manager earlier in the day is best, the vote is due this afternoon.
The Pound might also find itself in some turbulent waters tomorrow as the Bank of England meet to discuss the latest interest rate decision for the UK. With the meeting minutes released at the same time, we will get a snapshot of how the Bank is viewing the UK economy and the likelihood of any further interest rate hikes in the future.
I would not be surprised to see the Pound under some pressure as the market points towards a much longer time taken to raise interest rates. One of the reasons I believe this is because the Bank of England were quite explicit in not raising back in May, owing to low economic growth.
The most recent impressions of the UK economy are not good with the latest NIESR (National Institute Economic Social Research) report suggesting UK economic growth for the last 3 months was 0.2% versus the 0.3% expected.
Sterling could easily come under further pressure if the Bank of England make note of this, other news tomorrow is the latest UK Government borrowing data tomorrow at 09.30 am. Clients looking to buy a currency with sterling should make sure they are in touch with their account manager ahead of what could be a surprisingly important day for the Pound.
For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.
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