UK Prime Minister Theresa May finds herself travelling to Austria this week to address European leaders at the EU summit. Depending on the outcome, I expect the pound could gain or lose 1-2% when we receive commentary about the event, however trying to predict the outcome is difficult. Mrs May’s plan is to continue to reinforce that the Chequers proposal is the only option. More on the topics due to be discussed at the summit along with economic data releases coming out this week in the Sterling report below. The table shows the range of exchange rates for a number of currencies throughout the past 30 days highlighting the importance of timing your transfer.

Currency Pair		% Change	Difference on £200,000
GBP	EUR	2.33%	€5,140
GBP	USD	3.34%	$8,520
GBP	AUD	4.79%	$16,000

Brexit Deal Progress Yet to be Officially Announced

In recent weeks we have had some positive news, which has shifted expectation, and many believe a deal is likely to be reached between the UK and EU at the EU summit in November. The positive news came when Head EU negotiator Michel Barnier told the press that he believed a deal could be reached within the next 6-8 weeks, in other words at the EU summit.

Furthermore, Theresa May should have a smile on her face when she travels to Austria, as an article in the Times this morning suggested that the Europeans are preparing to accept a deal on the Irish Border by the end of the year. The report suggested that Technology will be used which will minimise customs checks in Ireland, which essentially means no hard border! Unsurprisingly off the back of the positive news, the pound strengthened across the board throughout yesterday’s trading period.

UK inflation to fall slightly

This week the key economic data release to look out for is UK inflation on Wednesday. Reports are suggesting that UK inflation could fall slightly to 1.8% from 1.95. The only saving grace is that in recent weeks, average earnings numbers and growth forecasts have both increased therefore the outlook of the UK economy is better than forecasters had thought. I only expect the pound to fall by a minimal amount if the numbers are released as expected.

For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.

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News

Sterling Exchange Rates Fall Below 1.15 Against the Euro

16th April 2021

Sterling to Euro Exchange Rate Falls Below 1.15

This week, UK economic data has done little to support GBP rates, as the Eurozone vaccination rollout speeds up, causing sterling to slip lower against the euro.

By Tom Holian