As has been the case for some time, the potential for a Brexit following the EU referendum is the main driver for Sterling movement. This Pound Sterling report discusses last nights debate between two camps, whilst also looking at this weeks positive data.
Last night Boris Johnson of the ‘Leave’ campaign and Nicola Sturgeon who represents the ‘Remain’ camp went head to head on live television. The remain camp accused Mr Johnson of wanting David Cameron’s job more than wanting the UK to benefit from leaving the EU.
From my point of view, the leave campaign is based on an ideology that we could benefit from leaving the EU, and as the remainder’s pointed out last night there is no clear vision as to how the UK economy would be better off if we left the EU.
From reading this morning it was made clear that the leave campaigners have a real chance of winning. My prediction is that if we do choose to leave the EU then the GBP/EUR exchange rate could reach as low as 1.08. Therefore any clients looking to buy Euros before the referendum should look at doing so sooner rather than later.
This weeks economic data for the Pound has highlighted that the UK economy is currently performing very well. Manufacturing and Industrial data was released simultaneously on Wednesday, both surprising the markets which much better than expected results.
On Thursday, the latest trade balance figures were released which were better than expected after UK exports rose to a 3 year high, highlighting the benefits of a weaker exchange rate since the end of 2015.
Although this data was a welcomed boost for the economy, it did little to help clients looking to buy Euros. The much talked about EU referendum is currently weighing down on investor confidence and as we enter the final two weeks before the results are announced, I am predicting some real fireworks.
I am of the opinion that any clients holding out to buy Euros at 1.30 will have to see if we stay in the EU, however those looking to convert Euros to Pounds are going to be presented with some fantastic opportunities leading up to the referendum. Historically, in both the Scottish referendum and general election Sterling lost nearly 6 cents in the week leading to the result.
For more information on upcoming events such as the EU Referendum and a potential Brexit, and how data releases could affect your currency exchange, speak with our currency brokers on 01494 725 353 or email me directly at email@example.com.
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