If we learnt anything from last week, it’s that those looking to buy foreign currency with Sterling remain locked into an extremely short-term market. Ben Small discusses the upcoming economic data releases likely to impact Sterling whilst still awaiting an update on Brexit. The table below shows the difference in return you could have achieved in a number of currencies when selling £200,000.00, depending on when you carried out your transfer in the past 4 days.

Currency Pair% ChangeDifference on £200,000
GBPEUR1.5%€3200
GBPUSD1%$2600
GBPAUD1.1%AUD $3800

With the Pound sitting at the pivotal levels of 1.12 against the euro and 1.27 against the Dollar, it may pay to capitalise on the next spike in your favour rather than holding out for long term gains.

Tomorrow’s average earnings release as well as Wednesday’s key inflation data might offer up the opportunity to maximise your return, given how closely watched they will be by the Bank of England.

With heavy swings against the Euro and new lows being tested against the Dollar on a daily basis, it is proving very difficult to detect a distinct shift in market sentiment.

Will sterling come under pressure towards the end of the week?

EU concessions to send GBPEUR up?

Friday did bring with it plenty of optimism however, which may now have set the scene for a consistent rebound from the Pound against it’s major currency counterparts.

As the eurozone scrambled to tackle the recent Turkish crisis, extremely positive international trade data coupled with the news that EU members were looking at ways to offer concessions to the UK to keep negotiations moving forward, sterling seems to have benefitted from a regain in trust, leading to a rise of over 1% against the euro in the space of a days trading.

More importantly, it seems the dynamics of the markets have shifted, potentially for the long run. The market’s main fear for Sterling was that the EU would allow the clock to tick down and the UK would be forced to make arrangements for the eventuality of a Brexit No deal.

But rumours of EU members keen to make concessions seem to have potentially appeased investors, which may have taken a number of worse case scenarios out of the equation, for now at least.

What concessions will the UK be willing to make?

The question of course is whether the UK Government agree to sacrificing their ability to negotiate their own trading terms with partners around the world. Do they believe being in the EU single market is worth it?  The markets certainly seem to think so, and for foreign exchange to sustainably become any cheaper in the long run, PM May might have to fall in line with expectation.

Interestingly, the latest YouGov poll suggested that if another referendum were to take place now, 53% would be with Remain, highlighting the lack of faith the public have in the Brexit we currently seem to be heading for.

For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.

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Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this web site is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc. ("FCD") makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.