Despite a gaffe from Senior Conservative MP and Leader of the House Jacob Rees-Mogg in relation to the Grenfell Tower disaster, the Tory’s have maintained an ample lead in the polls, but a majority is by no means secure.

Nigel Farage is still insisting that the Brexit Party will not split the Tory Leave vote, stating it has most to gain from Northern Labour seats. Mr Farage highlighted the 2015 election when he led UKIP and the same question was posed. He said that it was Labour that had the most to lose. He also noted that his key audience would be the 5 million Labour Brexit voters and it was those constituencies he would be targeting.

UK election on December 12th, investors uncertain

Meanwhile, the Shadow Brexit Secretary, Sir Keir Starmer, has struggled to explain Labour’s Brexit plans with recent polls suggesting two thirds of voters are still not sure what Labour stand for. Labour have stated that a second referendum would be put to the people with the option of Remain or Labour’s deal, known by Brexiteers as BRINO (Brexit In Name Only). It is not difficult to see why the public are confused when Shadow Cabinet Leaders can’t even decide which side they would support.

To add further chaos to the Labour party’s campaign, Deputy Leader Tom Watson has stood down. Mr Watson had been at odds with the leadership since he was almost ousted from the party at the Labour conference. Although as an ardent remainer in a constituency, which voted 66% in favour of Leave, some may say the writing was on the wall.

Elsewhere, Lib Dem MPs are championing their leader Jo Swinson with a genuine belief she could be the next Prime Minister although latest polls suggest a drop in support for the Lib Dems rather than the much needed surge that is needed.

In economic data, Markit’s Services PMI recorded a higher than expected 50 points, the threshold which separates contraction/expansion, although the manufacturing sector contracted with a reading of 49.4 points. This morning sees Halifax House Prices being released at 8:30am with a consensus for a monthly increase of .3% and an annual increase of 1.4%. The Bank of England’s MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) then announce their latest interest rate decision and release the Quarterly Inflation Report at midday with Governor Mark Carney speaking 30 minutes later.

European Central Bank may employ looser monetary policy stance

The outlook for the euro remains bleak and with only occasional positive economic data, the prospect of a looser monetary stance from the ECB seems inevitable. Furthermore, it is widely anticipated that the eurozone’s largest economy (Germany) will fall into recession when Q3 GDP results are announced shortly. Clearly, the ongoing Brexit debacle has been a thorn in the side for the EU, however it is the global economic slowdown and ongoing US/China trade war which has really taken its toll on the German economy.

The European Commission will release its Economic Growth Forecast this morning at 10am and German Industrial production will precede that at 7am, with a consensus for a monthly adjustment of -0.4% and annual adjustment of -2.9%, heaping more pressure on the struggling economy.

US services data positive

US services data positive

The US’s latest services data has posted a buoyant 54.7 figure, significantly above expectations and reflecting strong growth in the sector. The dollar has also benefitted from optimism about US/China trade talks, which could lead to the removal of some of the 2018 tariffs, including the more significant 25% duties although investors are cautiously optimistic. Should a deal be managed, the chance of a US rate cut next year would also lessen.

The US will release Jobless Claims data early this afternoon and the FED’s Robert Kaplan will speak at 6:30pm. Otherwise, US economic data is rather light.

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