The UK should have left Europe now and we should have been discussing what Post-Brexit deals the UK could strike across the globe, instead we are discussing election campaigns yet again. Will Labour make significant inroads, or will the Tories win by a majority?
Early estimates show Boris Johnson winning by a majority, should this happen he will have the powers in play to push through his Brexit deal. The Lib Dems and of course The Brexit Party could yet have a say with both expected to win more seats as they split the hardcore Brexiteers and Remainders votes. This has been dubbed the most unpredictable election in decades.
All in all, the Pound made gains through October and seeing it end 3% higher at the end of the month compared to where we started, however with the general election around the corner we could see some volatility. The last time we had a general election the rates dropped sub 1.10, should the election be closer then expected or another hung parliament then dropping near those rates again wouldn’t be out of the equation.
Of course, a new month means fresh eco stats, so do keep your eyes open for any opportunities these may provide with any rate swings while we wait for further updates.
The Euro has been trading sideways against the pound over the last week, beginning the week at 1.1603, remaining at the top of the range, peaking at 1.1661 last month. The Euro having its own recent issues, with a contracting economy and the German economy possibly entering a recession there are issues to be fixed if we are to see strong comeback by the single currency.
The main driving force for the Eurozone this week is the retail sales figures out on Wednesday and the official winter economic forecasts on Thursday.
If there are any major deviations from the summer GDP forecast, which forecasted 1.2% growth for 2019 and 1.4% for 2020, we could see volatility in the Euro. A higher than expected reading will be bullish for the Euro and a lower than expected figure will be seen as bearish for the Euro, if you have a requirement coming up stay in touch with your account manager here at Foreign Currency Direct.
Last week we saw the US Federal Reserve Bank cut their interest rates again, following two previous rate cuts, the current levels are now the lowest since spring 2018.
In more significant developments, Donald Trump facing impeachment is a step closer, with a motion to move the enquiry ‘to a more public phase’ being passed on Thursday, Trump tweeting ‘this is the greatest witch hunt in American History’. The investigation, which was announced last month, is looking into a phone call between Mr. Trump and the Ukrainian president where Trump asks the Ukrainian president to look into joe bidden, who Trump faces in the 2020 elections. If this is taken further, we could see the USD rate swing, anyone with a USD requirement may want to stay in close contact with their account manager.
On a positive note, the Non-farm employment change was better than expected which saw the USD rise in the afternoon session. The actual figure of 128,000 was well above the 80,000 expected for the month of October.
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