Friday sees the release of Non-farm payroll figures in the US which could create volatility for the Dollar. You can view the latest exchange rates for the currency pair on our live exchange rate page.

Donald Trump knocks rivals out of the race

The USD rallied against the Pound during yesterday’s trading after it was announced that Donald Trump beat his Republican rival Ted Cruz in the Indiana Primary, forcing the latter to drop out of the race. Trump is now the last remaining Republican candidate standing, with his last remaining rival John Kasich also bringing an end to his campaign yesterday evening. At these early stages, the election hasn’t had a huge impact on the USD but I believe that as we begin to edge closer to November we will see volatile swings in the value of the Dollar.

One of the main drivers this year as far as the USD’s value is concerned is the timing of their next interest rate hike and with growing uncertainty over when this is likely to happen, especially with the election looming, the Dollar has been weakening.

This evening there will be speeches from a number of Federal Open Market Committee members and it is likely that they will drop some hints as to when we may see further interest rate hikes this year. I personally believe that due to global uncertainty with the EU referendum and the on-going presidential election that the FOMC will be reluctant to commit to more than 1 rate hike this year.

Nonfarm Payrolls could create USD volatility

There could also be significant volatility on Dollar exchange rates tomorrow afternoon when Nonfarm payrolls are released. This figure highlights the number of jobs created in a month in all non-agricultural businesses. A drop in the previous month’s figures is expected, but as regular readers will be aware, this figure is extremely hard to predict in advance as the numbers are so large. As a result we could see large swings in the Dollar’s value throughout the day so I would recommend keeping in regular contact with your account manager here so that they can keep you informed of all the latest market movement.

As we draw closer to the US election we are expecting volatile swings that are common with any politically uncertain event, you may wish to discuss options with us that may help secure the best exchange rate ahead of the event. Email me here and I will be happy to discuss in further detail with you.


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