The main drivers on the exceptional GBPEUR spike has been the Eurozone’s QE (Quantitative Easing) programme and the uncertainty presented to markets via Greece. Whilst such concerns continue in the background economic data should drive rates for the rest of the week. Since the start of the year GBPEUR has risen by close to 11 cents meaning a €250,000 purchase is now almost £15,000 less costly to buy. If you have a GBPEUR transaction to consider making some plans is a very wise move as rates never remain the same.
It seems reasonable to expect yet more weakness for the Euro particularly tomorrow at 13.30 when the ECB (European Central Bank) will give their Monetary Policy Statement. Sterling data has so far been positive for the pound which further increases the likelihood of GBPEUR to rise, however as the last few weeks have shown nothing should be taken for granted. The best way to navigate such uncertainty is to speak to one of our experienced knowledgeable traders. Speak with us today by calling 0800 328 5884 or international 00 44 1494 725 353.
Before Thursday there is some data which might present better opportunities for Euro sellers to take advantage of. This morning at 9.00 is Eurozone Services PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) data reflecting activity in the Services sector. This is followed by UK Services PMI at 09.30 and then Eurozone Retail Sales at 10.00 am. The EZ data is expected to show bigger improvements than the UK data so might provide a good opportunity for selling Euros, planning an exit strategy before Thursday may prove prudent.
If you are hoping for better rates buying Euros holding on to see just how Thursday’s ECB meeting goes might be sensible. Thursday is also the Bank of England Interest rate decision which isn’t expected to yield much but should be noted. And for those selling if you are still considering a purchase on Friday the Eurozone Growth figures (GDP – Gross Domestic Product data) might provide some further movement. To get a full overview of just how all of this data might pan out please contact the office on 0800 328 5884 or make a free quote request here.
We are also getting ever close to the General Election in the UK. If you are buying a property or have business transactions to conclude in the coming months this might be an issue to avoid. You might wish to contemplate our contract options including the forward contract to fix rates for up to one year. You can review all the choices on our website here, please connect with one of the team to discuss further what will suit you best.
Recent high expectations the US would raise interest rates in the summer have been reignited. Janet Yellen, Chairlady of the Federal Reserve made some rather big speeches last week in which she essentially pointed out that any rate hike will be data dependant. If you didn’t have an opportunity to read everything she discussed this was the main point.
Improvements in the US economic situation last week helped the USD to soar and is perhaps indicative of further USD strength to come. If I needed to buy or sell the dollar I would be watching Friday’s labour data with keen interest.
DATAWATCH – Friday 13.30 – US Unemployment rate and Non-Farm Payroll data. The activity of the Federal Reserve Bank is closely linked to improvements or deteriorations in the labour market. Therefore any improvements should lead to further USD strength. This data may well effect EURUSD and other currency pairings, speak to your account manager to get a full overview of just how important this event might be.
AUD - The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets by not cutting their base interest rate this week to 2.00%. Holding firm at 2.25% the rate is predicted to be cut further in the future and anyone selling AUD to buy the pound should be making plans to buy GBP sooner rather than later.
CAD – The Canadian dollar weakened sharply in recent months as the Oil price tumbled. However since the price of Oil has recovered so too has the Loonie and yesterday’s improved GDP data has also helped the Canadian dollar to rise. Today’s Canadian dollar interest rate decision and policy statement at 3.00 pm will give a clearer picture on what to expect longer term on GBPCAD.
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Jonathan Watson as ever, ensures a smooth, reliable and trustworthy transaction for the second time of service! Delightful to deal with – efficiency personified. Thank you Jonathan. Would recommend highly – 5Star.
Excellent initial guidance, and during the transaction regular communication and updates. Dealing with Jonathan Watson was a pleasure. Very reassuring.
Jonathan Watson provided very helpful advice throughout the process, as well as immediate responses to our inquiries. He and his team were patient and thoroughly professional, which helped us through some stressful moments following the sale of our property in France.