This AUD report will address the factors that could have an effect on Australian Dollar exchange rates over the coming weeks. The table below looks at the difference between the rate you would have achieved when purchasing £200,000.00 at the low and high levels during the past 30 days.
|Currency Pair||% Change||Difference on £200,000|
In recent weeks Australia's largest export Iron ore has been dropping dramatically in value and past history tells us this should be having a direct impact (negative) on Australian dollar exchange rates. However, at present the Australian dollar has remained fairly resilient against most major currencies. Economists are suggesting there are two main reasons for this.
Firstly, emerging markets stocks are outpacing developed markets stock and forecasters are predicting for this to continue for months if not years to come. The trend in recent years is for the Australian dollar to perform well when emerging markets are on the high. Secondly, even though the RBA continue to take a dovish stance in regards to interest rates, forecasters are predicting that the RBA will follow in the footsteps of the Federal Reserve and start to hike interest rates throughout 2018.
This week Australia is set to release a few key data releases that any client trading Australian dollars should take note of. In the early hours of Tuesday morning the Reserve Bank of Australia are set to release their latest minutes form the interest rate decision. The feel from the RBA is that Australia will be keeping interest rates on hold at record lows even though most of the other leading nations have or are thinking about hiking interest rates. If the minutes spring no surprises I expect either Australian dollar exchange rates to remain flat or show a slight decline.
Later in the week Unemployment numbers will be released at 1.30 Thursday morning. Since the July data release, Unemployment numbers have remained steady at 5.6%. With the job market remaining buoyant in Australia the trend over the last 3 years is for Unemployment numbers to fall (good news for Australian dollar sellers). I wouldn’t be surprised to see this figure fall to either 5.5% or remain at 5.6%. In addition, Chinese GDP numbers will be released later in the morning at 3am. As China is Australia’s major trading partner the trend is for Australian dollar exchange rates to follow the strength of the Chinese economy. If you are exposed to an Australian dollar exchange short term I would recommend keeping a close eye on 2nd largest economies GDP numbers.
For more information on how future data releases could affect your currency requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.