The Chancellor of the Exchequer will deliver the Autumn Budget early this afternoon. The Budget is expected to show a focus toward the suffering high street reducing business rates for small companies essentially providing a £1.5bn boost.

Currency Pair% Change in 30 daysDifference on £200,000
GBPEUR1.38%€3,100
GBPUSD2.38%$6,100
GBPAUD2.16%$7,300

Whilst the budget doesn’t normally have too much of an effect on the currency markets, there could potentially be a side story as there is a vote at the end of the statement as to whether the plans are accepted. The Conservatives rely on the DUP in Northern Ireland for support in order to have a majority in the House of Commons. The DUP have threatened to vote down the budget following a breakdown in talks with the EU regarding the customs union and the Irish border.

Whilst it’s unlikely to be much more than a formality today, if the DUP were to vote down the budget that would put considerably more pressure on Theresa May, who could face a leadership challenge. Therefore, whilst the information in the budget may not directly impact the currency, the politics surrounding the approval could have an effect.  

In an interview yesterday Phillip Hammond stated that if there was a no deal Brexit there would need to be a new budget, so it’s safe to say either way the Chancellor will have his work cut out in the next few months.

Chancellors Budget Today

Bank of England interest rate decision

The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee will deliver their latest interest rate decision on 'Super Thursday' this week and is expected to keep the rates on hold. The key event however will be the statement from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney after the decision is released.

Carney, who has recently extended his stay at the Central Bank is hoping to be able to follow the World's leading economies by raising borrowing costs over the next few years. This is proving tricky at the moment with the uncertainty of Brexit. The BoE is reluctant to make any major changes before the future is clearer.

Carney is very well famed for weakening sterling when he speaks so if you do have a requirement which involves selling sterling, past form suggests getting in touch with your broker before Thursday might be a good option.  

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