Short-term view may see Canadian Dollar gaining greater expense

Buying rates on the Canadian Dollar have suffered due to the recent tumultuous events in the UK. This is undeniably a factor but positive turns in the Canadian economy are also sparking this increased strength on CAD/GBP.

This may be exaggerated at 13:30 today with the release of Canadian retail sales figures. Positive improvements are expected to a similar tune as to what the UK enjoyed just last week, though maybe not to the same degree.

Due to the rapid shift in UK weather ahead of the winter, UK retail sales had the biggest monthly increase in 14 years. Markets are anticipating much more modest gains, but it is still a jump into positive territory compared to a contraction the month before. GBP/CAD may drop into the mid 1.60’s before the close of play today should this come through.

Winds changing for Canadian economy?

The Canadian Dollar is intricately tied to the commodities markets, and more specifically oil prices. Improvements and downturns tend to run parallel to each other.

Oil prices have been very low for some time, but are finally showing signs of life, reaching 3 week highs ahead of the next OPEC meeting on November 30th. OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, are close to agreeing a deal to limit production for the first time since 2008.

Positive noises are abundant, with the previous stumbling block at the last meeting, Iran, now agreeing to cap their production as well, since these current prices per barrel have been unsustainable for quite some time.

Confirmation of this deal would be a major event in the currency markets and as such could see the Canadian Dollar hammer against the Pound. If I had an upcoming or future Canadian Dollar requirement I would avoid all risk entirely and secure an exchange rate ahead of time. You can utilise a forward contract to protect yourself by pre-booking your currency for a future date at today’s levels.

For more information on how OPECs meeting in November could impact your Canadian Dollar requirement, call our trading floor on 01494 725 353 or email me here.

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